Indonesia's mobile service revenue is expected to grow at a mere 0.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from US$10.4 billion in 2022 to US$10.6 billion in 2027, according to GlobalData. This is due to the continued decline in mobile voice revenues, which outweighs the steady progress in the mobile data service segment.
GlobalData's Indonesia Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q1-2023) predicts that mobile voice service revenue will decline at a 5.2% CAGR over the forecast period. This is because consumers are shifting towards over-the-top (OTT)-based communication platforms, leading to a decline in voice service average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.
The revenue from mobile data services is expected to increase by 2.1% annually between 2022 and 2027. This growth is due to the increasing use of mobile data services, the rise in smartphone subscriptions and the projected increase in higher-ARPU-yielding 5G subscriptions.
Telecom Research Analyst at GlobalData, Hrushikesh Mahananda, predicts that the average monthly data usage will increase from 9.8GB in 2022 to 25.3GB in 2027. This is due to the growing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, as well as the availability and adoption of 4G/5G services and data-centric packages offered by mobile network operators.
Further, 4G will continue to be the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions until 2027, as operators expand their LTE networks in underserved areas as part of the government's plan to provide 4G network access to all remote villages and sub-districts in the country by 2023.
According to forecasts, 5G subscriptions are expected to grow the fastest and make up about 12% of all mobile subscriptions by the end of 2027. This is due to the expansion of 5G networks by mobile operators.
Telkomsel is expected to remain the leader in the mobile services market until 2027 because of its focus on developing and expanding its 4G network throughout the country. Additionally, Telkomsel is gaining new customers through its omnichannel and social media strategies.
