China to achieve US$165 billion by 2024 thanks to accelerated mobile subscriptions

According to GlobalData’s Asia-Pacific Mobile Broadband Forecast Pack, the total mobile subscribers in China are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6% between 2019 and 2024. 

Riding on the back of growing smartphone subscriptions and increasing data consumption, mobile data revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.0% during the outlook period. 

Kantipudi Pradeepthi, Research Analyst of Telecoms Market Data & Intelligence at GlobalData, says: “One of the major driving factors of the growing monthly data usage of mobile broadband in China is the rise in consumption of online video and social media over smartphones. In addition, MNOs are offering discounts on tariffs to stay in the competition.” 

By the end of 2018, 4G subscriptions accounted for 75.7% of total mobile subscriptions, due to the widespread coverage of long term evolution (LTE) network. Some mobile network operators (MNOs) have already started the 5G trials in 2019 and plan to launch commercial 5G services in 2020. 

5G is expected to hold 31.9% of the total subscription share by the end of 2024. However, to sustain the intense market competition, operators are focusing on 4G investment and as a result LTE is expected to dominate the Chinese telecom industry with 47.9% subscription share by the end of 2024.    

The average monthly churn rates in China will fall from 2.5% in 2019 to 2.3% by 2024, as MNOs promote post-paid plans with longer contract periods to balance retention of customers. 

Kantipudi concludes: “China Mobile Ltd has monopoly in the country’s mobile market with around 60% mobile subscription and mobile revenue share over the last five years. The company will remain as a dominant player till 2024, constituting nearly a billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2024.”